One could argue the stock market had a relatively good month in July, but that’s only because the bar for the year has been set pretty low. After plunging to 24,117 on June 27, the Dow Jones Industrial Average clawed its way back up to a high of 25,527 by July 26 before leveling off again. In the meantime, volatility remained high as Wall Street continued to closely watch the impacts of Donald Trump’s trade policies and the Federal Reserve’s moves around interest rates.
The last month of the second quarter played out very much like the preceding four months: with record volatility in the overvalued stock market, long-term interest rates holding at their resistance level, inflation still below 2 percent, and the Fed pretending not to notice any of it.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average opened June at 24,635 and finished nearly 400 points down from that, but in between, it climbed nearly 700 points higher and fell more than 500 points lower.1 The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were equally volatile, thanks mainly to escalating concerns over Donald Trump’s trade policies and the threat of a full-blown trade war.
Fed Walks a Tightrope in Efforts to Normalize Without Pain As the stock market has continued rising and falling like a stormy ocean over the last several months, the bond market settled into a period of relative calm. After spiking to 3.11 percent in mid-May, the yield on the 10-Year Treasury dropped below 3 percent …
What’s in Store for the Rocky Financial Markets in the Second Half of 2018? We are now past the halfway point of 2018, and, as far as the financial markets go, the contrast between what we experienced last year and what’s happened so far this year could not be more extreme. What do the next …
Times Change, and Financial Strategies Should Change with Them As the stock market roller-coaster ride that began this winter continues into a third season, I wanted to make this month’s newsletter a brief refresher about why I believe my income-based business model is so appropriate for this new “era of economic uncertainty.” For nearly 20 …
Buckle Up as a New Chairman Attempts to Land the Fed’s Experimental Plane The dramatic market volatility I discussed in last month’s newsletter continued throughout April as the yield on the 10-Year Treasury rate topped 3 percent for the first time since 2014. Fears of rising interest rates and inflation helped drive the volatility along …
Will a Staggering Stock Market Find its Legs or is it Already KO’d? It’s up, it’s down, it’s staggering all around. Like a pummeled boxer, the stock market can’t seem to decide whether to keep fighting or stay down for the count. After experiencing a 10 percent correction during the first full week of February, …
Thinking You ‘Have Plenty’ Often Leads to the Danger of Complacency With the stock market still fluctuating wildly after February’s 10 percent correction, I wanted to devote this month’s newsletter to a somewhat broader topic: complacency. There are all kinds of dangerous ways to become complacent with your money, but one I see often stems …
Occasional Strong Headwinds for Fixed Income are Nothing New As you know, the stock market rose by over 20 percent in 2017, then increased by about another 6 percent in January before taking a dramatic tumble at the beginning of February. At the same time, the bond market enjoyed a tailwind for the first half …
2018 Will Be Another Double-Digit Year for the Stock Market, But… You don’t need me to tell you 2017 was a banner year for the stock market. The Dow gained over 25 percent, the S&P 500 added about 20 percent, and the Nasdaq nearly 30 percent.1 Looking ahead, I’m forecasting another double-digit year for …
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