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David Scranton on Reuters Forum

Transcript from Reuters Global Markets Forum interview with David Scranton on December 16, 2014. GMF LiveChat: David Scranton, on Russia, FOMC and investing outlook for 2015.


Walden Siew GMF, please help me welcome David from Scranton
Walden Siew I guess a good place to start would be with emerging
markets and Russia? Do you have a view on the news out of Moscow
last night or how to play emerging markets in 2015?
David Scranton Good Morning Everyone
GMF MEMBER 1 Good Morning
GMF MEMBER 2 Good morning David.
Walden Siew So, I’d like to kick off with EM, and then broadly, let’s
circle back to @Paulo’s question earlier:
David Scranton It’s ground hog day, a glimpse of 1998 again
Walden Siew Paulo Variz Where do you think
the imvestors should put their money in 2015?
GMF MEMBER 2 Thank you Walden!
Walden Siew deja vu all over again?Rate hike fails to support rouble, traders see shades of
Full Story

*Central bank hikes key rate by 650 bps

*Does little to stop rouble rout

*Rouble down over 50 pct vs dollar in 2014

*Higher rates threaten to choke economy

David Scranton I hate to say it with interest rates this low, but with many
world economy doing this poorly the answer is probably fixed
GMF MEMBER 2 David, do you believe that low energy prices will have a
positive impact on global economy? If so, why not invest in
GMF MEMBER 2 stocks*
David Scranton In general yes, but i don’t believe it will be enough short
term to stimulate these economys
David Scranton economies- oops
Walden Siew a lot of smart investors made the wrong bet on bonds in
2014. We have the FOMC meeting today/Weds….
Walden Siew What are the key things you are watching? And do you
expect a rate hike to come in 2015 and when. Since you mentioned
fixed income, how do you play the bond market in the new year
(corporates, HY, etc)?
David Scranton Any federal funds rate hike will be minimal in 2015 and not
enough to stop the flight to quality that affects long term
David Scranton Walden, who has thoughts about what could actually help these
world economies improve in 2015?
Walden Siew David, do you focus mostly on the US, or do you invest in
Europe, Asia or emerging markets? In the chase for yield, what
markets or sectors are you looking at most closely (or
Walden Siew And then let’s open it up for any last questions for
Walden Siew Portguese real estate? (as someone suggested
GMF MEMBER 1 David, When do you see Rouble ending this fall ? It seems
that nothing done by Russian Central Bank is stopping it . What
else shall be done to stop this fall?
David Scranton For me, mostly US because of currency risk. Also I focus on
managing risk premiums spreads when possible
Walden Siew Thanks for joining, @Mustafa from Egypt, let’s take your
question next
David Scranton With oil prices dropping with no end in site plus the trade
embargoes, i’m not sure much can be done
Walden Siew And then I’m also curious for your view on oil. Whither
oil prices, and how does that affect your investment strategy
for 2015?
David Scranton Dropping oil prices in 2015 can help our US stock market with
potentially more upside than other countries with struggling
economies- But be careful!
Walden Siew Just a few more minutes, let’s take last questions. Or
David, if you have any closing thoughts or exit question to
leave for the forum, please post now!
GMF MEMBER 3 wouldn’t it help those countries with higher import bills for
oil more than the US?
David Scranton True, but many of those are now entrenched in recession
GMF MEMBER 3 fair point
David Scranton Be cautious in equities , 2015, it could be a wild ride
Walden Siew Thanks much, @David. Do you have a website or a twitter
handle for those who are interested in following you?
David Scranton I don’t tweet yet but I am going to start in 2015
Walden Siew
GMF MEMBER 1 Thanks , David
David Scranton Thank you, Happy Holidays to all!

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